WTF Happened in Gaza?

The following is a brief overview of the recent war in Gaza. Reading my Gaza for Beginners post first is recommended.

From the top:
Between December 27th, 2008, and January 18th, 2009, Israel was battling Hamas in the Gaza Strip. It began with aerial bombings of targets associated with Hamas—buildings from which they had launched rockets, headquarters, underground smuggling tunnels, the prison, the university, and other practical and symbolic targets. After about a week of that, the Israeli army sent ground troops. The fighting ended when Israel and then Hamas both declared unilateral cease-fires on the same day. Three Israeli civilians and 10 soldiers were killed in this war. The number of Palestinian dead has not yet been confirmed. Estimates range from 900-1500. Hamas claims about 40 of those were its fighters, and the rest were civilians. Israel claims a majority were fighters.

Why did Israel start attacking Gaza?
Israel wanted to end the rocketfire which had been coming into Israel since 2002. After the 6-month truce ended on December 19th, Hamas increased the number of rockets it launched into Israel. They were also firing rockets during the truce. Thousands of rockets and mortars were launched from Gaza into Israel over the past few years, making life in southern Israel a nightmare. A Fox News article^ counts 3000 Qassam rockets and 2500 mortar attacks on Israel between 2001 and May 2008. A wikipedia.org list of rocket and mortar attacks claims 7500 rockets have hit the city of Sderot.* I don’t consider Fox or wikipedia.org 100% reliable, but any way you look at it, a lot of rockets and mortars have landed in Israel.

Why was Hamas firing rockets into Israel?
Hamas wanted to end the occupation of the Gaza Strip, the blockade of it, and the occupation of the West Bank, as well as simply removing Jews from what they consider Islamic land*. Both sides basically went back and forth saying that they would give the other side what they wanted as soon as they met certain demands.

The Truce.
I think this all has to do with the truce, which no one seems to be talking about. The 6-month truce which ended in December was pretty shaky all along. Israel wanted Hamas to stop arming itself and attacking, which it didn’t do. Hamas wanted Israel to end the blockade, which it didn’t do because the rockets were still coming in. Whether or not that sounds fair, there is no way Israel is going to open up borders to a territory controlled by an organization which has sworn to destroy it, and actively tries to do so. (Most people don’t think Hamas is capable of achieving that objective, but that may or may not be relevant.) So the truce ended, and Hamas immediately said it wouldn’t agree to another one. Hamas wants a truce in which its borders are open. It didn’t think Israel would launch an all-out assault on it; rather, it thought Israelis would be willing to make even more concessions to get the rockets to stop. Israel, on the other hand, wants a truce with teeth— one in which it can act militarily against attacks. It wants a truce which actually assures its citizens live in peace. It figured that if it showed Hamas who’s boss, they would agree to a rocket-less truce so as not to get creamed again. They were both trying to force a truce, but as of now we only have two independent cease-fires. Israel said it would bomb Gaza if rockets came again, and they did. Hopefully they won’t try it again.

Israel has made a number of concessions to the Palestinians, and many Israelis feel there is a lack of reciprocity. The biggest example of this is the 2005 unilateral Israeli withdrawal of all soldiers and civilians from Gaza, which lead to an increase in rocket fire. It’s things like that which make Israelis really cynical. Like, Gaza gets 2/3rds its electricity from the Israeli city of Ashkelon, and then they hit it with rockets.** And then they complain when their electricity is cut off.

More than anything, the entire Israeli-Arab conflict is a political conflict. Yes, land (and religion) seems to be the crux of the problem, but you have to keep in mind that this is mostly a political conflict. Different sides have objectives, and are doing whatever they think will get them the greatest gains. Outside of Israel/Palestine, it’s hard to remember that regular people live there. They prefer Coke to Pepsi, they want those shoes from that magazine, and that neighbor boy is pretty cute. It’s very easy to be ideological here, and say who should live where, who has the right to this, or who should do that. But it’s all politics. Israeli and Palestinian leaders are assholes, just like in America. People are way less fanatical about it there than they are here, if you can believe it.


Wasn’t Israel’s military response disproportionate?
I have a number of responses to this question:

Should Israel wait until 1000 of its citizens die before it launches an intense military action?

The disproportionate argument usually relates to the death count, as suggested above. Hamas is not very good at killing Israelis with rockets, but not for lack of trying. They sent thousands of rockets into Israel, each one an attempt at killing Israelis, or at least making living in that section of Israel intolerable. Hamas acquired bigger and longer-range missiles over time, clearly with the intent of terrorizing as many Israelis as possible.~ Israel built bomb shelters everywhere—even on playgrounds—and created alarm systems to warn its residents. These have saved many lives. So if Israel is good at protecting its citizens, that means Hamas shouldn’t pay the price for its actions?

On the flip side, Hamas is not good at protecting its people. Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on earth, and firing rockets from urban areas is bound to come with a terrible price. The line between civilian and soldier is blurred with Hamas fighters. They may fire rockets or smuggle weapons in the morning, but they go home to their families at night. Instead of using the billions of dollars in international aide to build infrastructure and promote an economy, Hamas has used its money for weapons. If it can smuggle ammunition, it should be able to smuggle medical supplies and food. Hamas also uses human shields. They launch rockets from schools, store their weapons in mosques, and disguise their soldiers in hospitals. Hamas built no bomb shelters for its people. Israel would also warn Gaza residents of impending attacks with text message or leaflets, which no other military would consider doing. If you only count deaths, you’re missing most of the picture.

How many Gazans died?
Good question. Most of the figures come from Palestinian sources. There have been numerous instances of grossly inflated death counts coming from Palestinian sources (Battle of Jenin), and I am reluctant to give a definite figure right now. Additionally, reporters were not allowed in Gaza, so there were no (theoretically) unbiased sources confirming the deaths. I will update this section as new figures appear.
12/29: 350 dead, 60 civilians. [that’s 17%] NY Times “according to UN officials”
12/29: 314 dead, 57 civilians. [that’s 18%] Guardian UK citing “Palestinian officials.”
1/1: 390 dead; 1600 wounded, “dozens of civilians.” Washington Post citing “Gaza medical officials.”
1/3: 430 dead. NY Times.
1/15: 1000+ dead, 300 children. AlJazeera
1/22: 1314 dead, 412 children; 5300 wounded. Jpost citing “Hamas ministry.”
1/22: A Haaretz op-ed on 1/31 said “according to the Palestinian Center for Human Rights”, as of 1/22 are: 1285 dead, 1062 non-combatants (895 civilians, 167 civilian police,) 281 children, 111 women. 4336 wounded, 1133 children.
1/23: 1300 + dead. AlJazeera.
1/25: 1330 dead. AlJazeera.
1/26: 1300 dead. Haaretz.com.
3/25: 1370 dead: 600 Hamas men, 309 civilians of which 189 were children under 15. haaretz.com citing IDF report.
3/25: 1440 dead: 431 are children, 114 are women. haaretz.com citing UN report. From the same article:
3/25: 1434 dead: 960 civilians. haaretz.com citing "Palestinian officials."
There has been a general leveling off of statistics, usually ranging from "almost 1300" to "1330." The sources cited are universally questionable, and any unconfirmed single source is automatically questionable.
4/4: 1100+ dead. Al Jazeera. In the same article, citing Palestinian Centre for Human rights, which has a list of dead: 1417dead, 926 civilians. Citing the Israeli military which doesn't have a list: 1116 dead, 295 civilians.
4/22: 1166 dead: 709 combatants, 295 women, children, elderly. Jpost.com citing IDF Cast Lead probe.
8/24/09: "at least 1400" killed. alJazeera English, not citing a source
7/6/10: "more than 1300." Al Jazeera English.
7/6/10 "around 1400." al Jazeera English

If the rockets have been coming for many years, what was Israel doing about it, and why did it decide on a military assault this time?
The city which comes under the most fire is Sderot. There is a warning system in place. The “Color Red” alarm goes off, and everyone has 15 seconds to get into a bomb shelter before the rocket hits. Israel also flies drones over Gaza, and frequently bombs sites from which rockets were launched. Israelis were quite critical of the lack of response, often lamenting that Sderot and other cities had been abandoned.

The (crappy) truce had ended, and Hamas immediately increased attacks. Israel had been holding back for years, for many reasons. It tried a number of tactics, the most aggressive being the unilateral disengagement of 2005. Nothing worked. When the truce ended, Israel felt the time was ripe for defending its citizens militarily. I think Israelis had enough.

A few points I want to bring up:
If Hamas laid down its weapons, so would Israel. If Israel laid down its weapons, Hamas would not.

Hamas uses human shields. They fire rockets out of densely populated areas, putting thousands of people at risk. Hundreds of Palestinians are killed each year in failed rocket launches, and by other Palestinians who suspect them of “collaborating” with Israel or being members of Fatah (to be fair, they are usually shot in the legs rather than killed.) Hamas hides in schools, hospitals, mosques, and other civilian locations.

“They shall beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks. Nation shall not lift up sword against nation, nor shall they experience war anymore.”

^http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,473868,00.html
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Qassam_rocket_attacks
**http://www.wtop.com/?nid=778&sid=1568377
~ http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/hamas-qassam.htm